Will AI be a net plus? You decide :: WRAL.com

AI
– the abbreviation for “artificial intelligence – appears on a path to be a
bigger part of our lives.  Initially
confined to labs and a few companies, AI is now a major part of the investment
world, it is in the middle of international competition – particularly between
the US and China – and it is sending both worries and excitement to the labor
market.

Each
of the three key segments of our economy, including businesses, consumers and
workers, have a stake in AI. The big question is whether the impacts on each
will be a net plus or a net minus.

Before
I address this important question, let me review exactly what AI is. AI is a technology that combines three parts
of today’s world – the availability of large amounts of data, the development
of computer programs analyzing these data and efficient, high-speed computers
that can quickly provide the results of the analysis.

Here’s
a quick example.  When I was a youngster
in the 1950s and my parents took me to our family doctor, Dr. McClellan, he
would rely on knowledge he learned in medical school to make diagnoses.  Although Dr. McClellan was a good doctor, his
training was likely decades old. He could try to keep up on new information by reading
medical journals, but limited time likely kept him from knowing all the latest
information. 

AI
can solve this problem.  In the future,
if a patient is suffering from a medical issue, the patient’s symptoms and
other characteristics will be feed into an AI program on the doctor’s computer,
and in mere seconds a diagnosis and suggested treatment will be
given.  Importantly, the diagnosis and
treatment will be based on an analysis of people with similar characteristics –
such as age and gender – and similar symptoms using data from across the
country, and maybe from across the world.

The
same process using AI will be used for many situations to help consumers
receive better service and outcomes.  But
the benefits to consumers from AI won’t stop here.  Businesses of all types will use AI to become
more efficient. Increased business efficiency means cutting waste and getting
more production value from inputs to the production process, including labor.
And greater business efficiency often leads to lower prices for consumers.

Here’s
a quick detour into how AI could help an iconic North Carolina industry,
textiles. Textiles was a dominant industry in North Carolina in
the 19th and 20th centuries. But international
competition, especially in the form of lower-cost labor, reduced the ability of
domestic textile firms to compete, and hence the industry declined.

The
good news is that many textile experts believe that use of AI in textile mills
will reduce waste and increase worker productivity enough so that the US
textile industry, including in North Carolina, will increase its
competitiveness and boost its production and sales.  While the industry will not necessarily
regain its dominance of earlier times, it will experience a recovery.

Hence,
so far it appears use of AI will create benefits for businesses and for
consumers. 

Yet, some worry about AI
being used to produce results that could have adverse outcomes.  The news has covered examples, with many of
the situations focusing on younger individuals. 
Of course this is a concern, and the question is if these adverse uses
of AI can be controlled while at the same time preserving the benefits from AI.

The
last group to address is workers, and this may be the most challenging group because
there will likely be pros and cons for workers. 

On
the pro side is the likelihood salaries will rise for workers who become more
productive due to AI as well as for workers who receive special training for
developing, maintaining and using AI. There will be surge in schools creating
training in AI and an increase in jobs for AI trained individuals with good
salaries.

But
the downside is that AI will likely reduce, or even eliminate, many other kinds
of jobs, including many with good salaries. Any occupation that requires
analysis of data, such as bookkeeping, investing and even management, will be
vulnerable to being performed by AI. A recent study found use of AI resulted in
fewer jobs in engineering, financial analysis, computer sciences and
architecture.

This
discussion leads to one of the ironic impacts that some experts forecast will
occur from AI. This is that AI will lead to a reduction in income
inequality.  In other words, the gap
between higher-paid workers and lower-paid workers will decrease.  How so? 
It is because AI’s analytical abilities will replace numerous
high-paying jobs that now perform those analyses, as cited in the previous
paragraph.  At the same time, workers
without that higher level training will be able to use AI to give the same
results, increasing their value and pay.

AI
is here to stay, and its impacts on our lives will be increasing seen in coming
years. Will AI be a net benefit to our society? 
As with most things, AI will have benefits and costs.  Clearly, this is a situation where each
individual will have to decide.

____________________

Dr. Mike Walden
is a William Neal Reynolds Distinguished Professor Emeritus at North Carolina
State University.