6G momentum is building

Back in 2014, the then principal network architect at EE, Andy Sutton, made the much-quoted remark that there “may not be a 6G if we get 5G right,” suggesting that 5G networks would involve more than just a shift to a new generation of mobile networks as with 2G, 3G and 4G.

Now a fellow and principal network architect at EE’s parent company BT, Sutton is still keeping a keen eye on 4G and 5G network evolution with a particular focus on 5G Advanced as well as mobile edge computing, 5G private networks and 3GPP non-terrestrial networks, as his LinkedIn profile suggests.

Certainly, 5G has been on something of a journey, starting with 5G non-standalone and moving towards 5G standalone (5G SA) and 5G Advanced, with other shifts and developments in between. It has also failed to realize some of its early promise to provide more revenue-generating use cases for telcos, although it’s hoped that this is now changing as 5G SA and advanced technologies are deployed.

Despite the comments by Sutton as well as former BT chief network architect Neil McRae, who said in 2019 that “hopefully we won’t need 6G,” it does, however, look increasingly likely that there will be yet another “G” in mobile networks as momentum around the next generation continues to build.

Building blocks

Indeed, 6G is already well underway from a standards development point of view. The first 6G discussions at the 3GPP standards body kicked off in March at a meeting in Incheon, South Korea, and the study items for 6G radio access network (RAN) and system architecture were agreed upon in June in Prague.

Although initial deployments are not expected before sometime around 2030, vendors, telcos, industry bodies and governments are already gearing up to play their role in influencing what the next mobile generation will be.

Qualcomm has already indicated it will have “pre-commercial devices with 6G as early as 2028,” and this week saw Nvidia announce plans to take a 2.9% stake in Nokia through a $1 billion investment, with a focus on “lead[ing] the transition from 5G to 6G.” In addition, Nokia, Ericsson and Berlin’s Fraunhofer Heinrich Hertz Institute (HHI) have teamed up to develop new video compression software – otherwise known as codecs – for the 6G era.

Telcos such as AT&T have started to talk about what they want from 6G (AI native, support ‘network as a sensor’ services and build on 5G Advanced, with new hardware and spectrum deployed only as needed, if you’re asking) and discussions about how the technology will evolve are increasing in frequency, as a quick look at Light Reading coverage reveals.

Notably, there have also been a couple of analyst reports this week with estimates that include the impact of 6G on operator investments. For instance, Light Reading sister company Omdia reckons that 6G and AI investment are set to drive industry growth in the global communications market.

According to Omdia, global communications providers’ revenue is expected to reach $5.6 trillion by 2030, growing at a 6.2% CAGR from 2025. Investment momentum is also expected to shift toward mobile networks from 2028 onward, as tier 1 markets prepare for 6G deployments. Telecoms capex is forecast to reach $395 billion by 2030, with a 3.6% CAGR, while technology capex will surge to $545 billion, reflecting a 9.3% CAGR.

As observed by Dario Talmesio, research director at Omdia, “telecom operators are entering a new phase of strategic investment. With 6G on the horizon and AI infrastructure demands accelerating, the connectivity business is shifting from volume-based pricing to value-driven connectivity.”

Meanwhile, Dell’Oro Group sees 6G capex ramping around 2030, although it warns that the RAN market remains flat, “raising key questions for the industry’s future.” Cumulative 6G RAN investments over the 2029-2034 period are projected to account for 55% to 60% of the total RAN capex over the same forecast period, Dell’Oro says.

It has certainly been an interesting week for all things 6G. Stay tuned to see how this market will continue to evolve.