Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company’s quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management’s input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information. With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure.
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let’s dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Analog Devices (ADI) earns a Zacks Rank #3 right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $1.94 a share, just 28 days from its upcoming earnings release on August 20, 2025.
ADI has an Earnings ESP figure of +0.72%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $1.94 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.93.
ADI is just one of a large group of Computer and Technology stocks with a positive ESP figure. Jabil (JBL) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.
Jabil is a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on September 25, 2025. JBL’s Most Accurate Estimate sits at $2.95 a share 64 days from its next earnings release.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Jabil is $2.92, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +0.77%.
ADI and JBL’s positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they’re reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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